Commentary The U. S Future and Its Imminent Fall By Luciano Umerez (May 21, 2004)

I urge you to finish reading the article, even if it is disturbing or you disagree. 

The world in which I am going to raise my sons is going to be very different; by 2050 the U.S. as we know it is not going to exist.

After a year in Iraq the United States’ reputation and leadership keep declining. After 9/11 Washington tried to intimidate the world so that it would support a non-provoked war. Everyone who didn’t believe that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction were stubborn or accomplices with the terrorists. Now we know that the stubborn administration, or liars, were they: Washington and its few allies. And still the Bush administration persists on its bullying!
The United States could be a great benign force. A study of the Commission of Macro-Economics and Health, dependent on the World Organization of Health, indicates that the U.S., with its $11 trillion in annual income, could control AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis with just a small amount of the money it wastes in Iraq. But instead of that, the Bush-run U.S. (and its supporters such as Disney and FOX) is one the countries that make the least amount of financial support to developing countries in terms of percentile of its economy. 

The US also can be a malignant force. Its military budget is around $450.000 million the equivalent to the sum of all military budgets of the rest of the world. The Bush administration believes that this huge financial power will buy us security, but terrorism has increased since the war began. 

Despite its wealth and military power, the U.S. will keep losing its capacity to project its political presence (for good or bad) because of five reasons in the years to come. 

• Its budget is in crisis. Thanks to Bush’s tax cuts and military expenses, there is an annual budget deficit of $500.000 billion and the U.S. will have to increase taxes and limit expenses (with Mr. Bush stealing the head executive branch from the people again or not). To control the budget, in the next years we will have to cut military expenses (since Bush assumed control of the executive, $150.000 billion were added to the military budget). 
• It’s taking massive loans from foreign countries. Asia is with-out-stop buying Treasury Bonds by the billions. Adding up, the U.S. is in big, big, debt with Asia; and the debt is getting deeper. My humble knowledge assumes that this massive buying of Treasury Bonds has single-handedly stopped the falling of the U$S even quicker.
• The rest of the world is coming closer to us. United States will see its big technological advantage diminished as its factories move towards China and India. If China keeps going with this incredible rise, it will be head-to-head with us in just 25 years; and in 50 could be 50% larger. India will also be head-to-head with us by 2050 with this astonishing growth.
• Its geopolitical power will also be diminished as the economy declines. China and India, that represent 40 percent of the world’s population, will have much bigger roles. Today’s marches of xenophobia in front of the externalization in the engineering of software to Indian companies reflect the anguish of a country that wants to maintain its economic leadership.
• The demographic factor will weaken its military focus in the world. Between Bush’s supporters, male white Christian fundamentalists are abundant. In my humble opinion, this group will come up against the growing social power of women, immigrants and different religions (such as Muslims). The retrograde agenda of the religious right and its vision are destined to failure. 69% of the U.S. population is currently non-Hispanic white people; by 2050 they will be just 50% with a 24% Hispanic, 14% Afro-American and 8% Asian population. The United States will look more like the rest of the world, especially like Latin America.

Personally: I would like to thank the ones who persist in reading this student-school-controlled newspaper. Thank you. I would also like to thanks Miss Ruhl for her opposing and interesting views in this subjective social science called economy.